El Niño’s Southern Hemisphere SST Anomaly
The strongest El Niño event ever recorded is unfolding, with anomalously high ocean temperatures persisting in the equatorial zone of the eastern Pacific. This phenomenon is particularly notable during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter season, when the southeast trade winds are typically strongest and extend across the equator. Historically, this setup has led to delayed coupling between the atmosphere and ocean, with the full Bjerknes coupling occurring after September when southern hemisphere sea surface temperatures (SSTs) begin to rise.
This mirrors what happened during the 2015-2016 El Niño event, where the peak occurred in December, but the biggest influences on teleconnections and warmest conditions happened three months later, in February. The delayed timing of this event’s peak is a critical factor in understanding its impact on global weather patterns. As Zeke notes, the models’ inability to accurately capture the annual cycle is a significant concern, and it remains to be seen whether the ocean will run out of heat.
The implications of this event are far-reaching, with potential impacts on global food production, economic activity, and human migration patterns. As the event continues to unfold, it is essential to monitor the evolution of the SST anomalies and their effects on teleconnections and weather patterns. A similar event in 1997-1998 had devastating consequences, including widespread flooding in Southeast Asia and drought in Australia.
Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling and Teleconnections
The Bjerknes coupling between the atmosphere and ocean is a critical factor in the development of El Niño events. As Zeke notes, this coupling is currently limited to the area near the dateline, but it is expected to expand eastwards along the equator after September. The models suggest that the ocean will not run out of heat, but their inability to accurately capture the annual cycle raises concerns about their reliability.
The decision-making logic behind the models’ predictions is based on the assumption that the ocean’s heat content will continue to increase, but this assumption may not hold. The operational mechanics of the models are complex, involving multiple parameters and feedback loops. However, the key factor is the representation of the atmosphere-ocean coupling, which is critical in determining the event’s impact on teleconnections and weather patterns.
The tradeoffs being made in the models are significant, with a focus on capturing the large-scale patterns rather than the small-scale variability. This approach may lead to biases in the predictions, particularly in the timing and amplitude of the event’s peak. A deeper understanding of the atmosphere-ocean coupling and its representation in the models is necessary to improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Winners and Losers in the El Niño Event
The strongest El Niño event ever recorded will have significant impacts on various sectors, including agriculture, energy, and finance. The winners will likely include companies that are well-prepared for the event, such as those with diversified portfolios and robust supply chains. The losers will be those that are heavily exposed to the event’s impacts, such as farmers in drought-prone regions and energy companies with limited storage capacity.
The specific mechanism of impact will vary depending on the sector and location. For example, the event may lead to increased demand for drought-resistant crops, benefiting companies that specialize in these products. On the other hand, the event may also lead to reduced demand for energy, negatively impacting companies that rely heavily on fossil fuels.
The non-obvious downstream effect of the event will be the impact on global food prices. The event may lead to reduced crop yields and increased food prices, particularly in regions that are heavily dependent on imported food. This may have significant implications for global economic activity, particularly in developing countries.
The Skeptical Case: Will the Models Get it Right?
The dominant narrative surrounding the El Niño event is that it will be the strongest on record, with significant impacts on global weather patterns. However, this narrative relies on the assumption that the models will accurately capture the event’s timing and amplitude. Historically, the models have struggled to accurately predict the annual cycle, and there is no guarantee that they will get it right this time.
A similar event in 1997-1998 was poorly predicted by the models, leading to significant surprises and impacts. The skeptical case is that the models may once again fail to accurately capture the event’s dynamics, leading to unexpected consequences. This highlights the need for caution and continued monitoring of the event’s evolution.
Signal to Watch: The September SST Anomaly
The single next verifiable event that will confirm or disprove the thesis of this article is the September SST anomaly. If the anomaly continues to persist and expand eastwards along the equator, it will confirm the models’ predictions and increase the likelihood of a strong El Niño event. On the other hand, if the anomaly weakens or fails to expand, it will raise concerns about the models’ accuracy and the event’s potential impacts.
The September SST anomaly will be a critical indicator of the event’s dynamics, and it will be closely watched by climate scientists and forecasters. A strong anomaly will increase the likelihood of significant impacts on global weather patterns, while a weak anomaly will reduce the likelihood of these impacts.
What’s your take on this? Drop your perspective in the comments below.
By Alex Mercer, Senior Tech Analyst at TrendFlashy
Ready to launch your own asset?
Check out our guide on Building a Profitable Online Business.
